Could flipping your vote affect local house prices

A recent academic study published in the Journal of Real Estate Research has highlighted a potential link between voting patterns and home price performance. The study observed that counties which flipped their votes from the incumbent party to the non-incumbent candidate, who then won the election, tended to experience superior home price growth over the following four years.

This trend is particularly relevant for counties that switched allegiance from Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 to Republican Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump winning the presidency. According to Eren Cifci, an assistant professor of finance at Austin Peay State University and lead author of the study, "These counties you identified could potentially experience superior housing performance following the election."

However, Cifci emphasizes that these findings are suggestive rather than definitive due to limitations in comprehensive economic data. He notes, "It’s not possible to account for all factors influencing these outcomes." The notion that election results could impact home prices remains intriguing and may be worth considering for prospective homebuyers in these areas.

The study titled "Housing Performance and the Electorate" examined county-level data from six presidential elections between 2000 and 2020. It found that regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans were involved, flip counties typically saw better home price performance when they helped a rival party regain control of the White House.

Cifci suggests one reason might be that victorious parties recognize these counties' critical role and invest more in them post-election. He states, "One possible explanation for these findings is that the rival party may recognize the critical role these counties played in securing their victory."

Interestingly, no significant impact on home prices was found when a county flipped its vote towards an incumbent party candidate who subsequently won. This could imply a lack of incentive for additional support once a party already holds power.

The primary focus of Cifci's research was actually on how rising home prices influence voter behavior rather than vice versa. The analysis indicated voters tend to reward incumbents if they have experienced rapid increases in property values before an election.

Alan Tidwell from the University of Alabama co-authored this study and explained this phenomenon: "People feel more financially wealthy if they have a lot of housing equity," he said. This sense affects their perception of financial well-being significantly.