Swing state home prices align more closely with red than blue counterparts

Home prices in swing states have shown a closer resemblance to those in red states than blue states since the last election, according to a report by Realtor.com's economic research team. The study analyzed median home prices across seven key battleground states for the 2024 presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The findings revealed that median home listing prices in these swing states averaged $216 per square foot over the past year through October. This compares to $322 per square foot in blue states and $192 in red states. "When it comes to home prices, swing states have mirrored red states much more than blue states over the past four years," stated Ralph McLaughlin, senior economist at Realtor.com.

Since the previous election cycle, swing state home prices have been approximately 30% to 40% less expensive than those in blue states on a per-square-foot basis but only about 10% to 20% more costly than those in red states. McLaughlin noted that if rising home prices are significant for voters next week, it suggests that swing state voters might be less concerned with federal housing policy compared to voters in blue states but perhaps slightly more so than those in red states.

On the campaign trail, both Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have addressed housing policy as part of their voter outreach efforts. Harris has focused on this issue more frequently and with greater detail. Her proposals include tax credits for builders aimed at constructing three million homes and federal down-payment assistance for first-time buyers. "We’re going to bring down the cost of housing," she said during a campaign event in Michigan.

Trump has criticized high housing costs and mortgage rates under the current administration while attributing blame to illegal immigration as a factor driving up home prices. "Under Kamala’s economy, millions of Americans are suffering because of inflation," he remarked at a rally in North Carolina.

In terms of price trends, median listing prices on a square-foot basis increased by 35% in swing states from October four years ago. This contrasts with a 24% rise in red states and a 40% increase in blue states during the same period. In September alone, median listing prices averaged about $399,000 in swing states—a 26% rise from September 2020—while they climbed by 34% to $371,129 in red states and rose by 25% to $554,321 in blue ones.

Realtor.com also highlighted that home affordability—a combination of local home prices and wages—sits near the national average within swing states. On average, red states are more affordable than the national average while blue ones are less so; meanwhile, swing state averages fall somewhere between these two extremes.