Election uncertainty affects US housing market activity

In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, some potential homebuyers have expressed hesitation in purchasing property, citing uncertainty over the outcome. This sentiment has been echoed by real estate agents nationwide, who report hearing clients say they are "waiting for the election."

While it is unlikely that immediate changes in home prices or mortgage rates will occur following the election of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the differing housing policies proposed by each candidate may influence buyer confidence. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), acknowledged this sentiment: “Homebuying is clearly a major decision, and we know the country is in a polarized state.”

The housing market has experienced a downturn recently, with sales of existing homes hitting a 14-year low in September despite favorable mortgage rates. According to Yun, “Maybe people are just waiting to see what the result of the election will be before making a major decision, like homebuying or home-selling decisions.”

In regions like Yucaipa, CA, where Republican support is strong, real estate agent Cayden Harry noted that many buyers prefer to wait for Trump's potential victory before committing to purchases. Harry recounted how some believe that if Trump wins, "interest rates and home prices are going to go down," though he remains skeptical.

Conversely, Michelle Griffith from Douglas Elliman observed similar caution among buyers in Manhattan. She explained that "any type of uncertainty" leads most buyers to adopt a "wait and see" approach.

Historical data analyzed by Realtor.com suggests minimal impact on home sales and prices during elections. However, post-election periods since 2004 have generally seen increases in both sales and prices. Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's Chief Economist, remarked on this trend: “The data is far more supportive of a pickup in sales and price growth after the election.”

Some industry professionals view election-related hesitation as an excuse for other underlying reasons not to buy. David Zarghami from Keller Williams suggested that such claims might be "a smoke screen," while Andrew Fortune from Great Colorado Homes noted that most clients remain unfazed by election outcomes.

Julie Taylor contributed to this report.