Damian Eales Chief Executive Officer | realtors.com
Many homebuyers refrained from entering the typically busy summer market, likely deterred by high mortgage rates, persistent list prices, and limited options.
However, prospects are improving for buyers as fall approaches.
According to a new Realtor.com® report, the optimal time to purchase a home in 2024 is approaching: the week of Sept. 29–Oct. 5.
“With all of the challenges facing buyers as the housing market continues its journey to a healthy condition, this week boasts the culmination of market factors that favor buying over every other week of the year,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.
During these seven days, buyers can expect to save more than $14,000 compared with the summer peak on a median-priced home of $445,000.
“By early October, home prices have fallen from their summer peak and buyers can take advantage,” says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst for Realtor.com.
In addition to potential savings, buyers who have faced limited housing stock will now have more homes to choose from. Historical trends suggest that during this optimal week, there will be 14% more listings than the average week or 37% more compared with the start of the year.
To determine this Best Week To Buy, Realtor.com analyzed various housing metrics including list prices, inventory levels, new listings, days on the market, homebuyer demand, and price reductions in multiple years excluding 2020 due to COVID-19 anomalies. The analysis also included weekly housing data for 2024.
Mortgage rate fluctuations could further benefit buyers. Mortgage rates recently fell to a low not seen in over a year. For the week ending Sept. 5, Freddie Mac reported that the rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.35%.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve has indicated plans to lower its rates by mid-September which could lead to further decreases in mortgage rates. While Fed rates do not directly set mortgage rates they often move in tandem.
A recent midyear housing forecast update from Realtor.com revised year-end mortgage rate expectations down to 6.3%.
“Potential mortgage rate improvement could greatly impact how much it costs to buy a home this fall,” says Hale. “Recent mortgage rate improvements could be a light at the end of the tunnel for buyers.”
The fall season may also present less competition among buyers due to seasonal slowdowns including completed moves over summer cooling weather and back-to-school activities.
“Homebuyers shopping during this optimal week should expect less competition from other buyers,” says Hale noting that early spring and summer draw most "buyers looking to lock down a home."
Come fall many of those buyers have found homes leaving more opportunities for those shopping at end September and early October.
“Historically during this Best Week To Buy demand is 29.5% lower than peak and 14% lower than average weeks," adds Hale though cautioning that falling mortgage rates might attract more buyers than usual seasonally."
“If inventory grows as expected there may be enough homes on market to meet increased demand," she adds."
Ultimately deciding when best time buy depends personal circumstances but if in market this fall spotting great property offers balanced mix favorable conditions relative rest year” advises Hale suggesting familiarizing oneself with priorities soon possible capitalize important factors"
Besides Best Week To Buy shoppers continue search following two weeks almost favorable notes Hale advising consideration shifting conditions thereafter"
“Home prices continue falling into winter but available inventory dwindles well” concludes Jones suggesting late fall advantageous both lower prices ample inventory before winter slowdown”
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