First Street Foundation identifies bigger flood risks to The Villages in Florida than FEMA

The First Street Foundation identified almost 70% more properties with a substantial risk of flooding than the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The First Street Foundation Model categorizes 14.5 million properties as having the same risk as Special Flood Hazard Areas as defined by FEMA, which only classifies 8.7 million properties as having substantial risk, First Street Foundation said. Flood risk data shared by the company covers more than 142 million properties and homes in the U.S.

First Street Foundation’s data shows almost 6 million property owners and households either have been unaware of this risk or underestimated it. First Street includes areas FEMA has yet to map, maps precipitation as a separate risk and uses current climate data.

A look at the data using the online FloodFactor.com tool – which any homeowner or property owner can use – for The Village in Florida reveals one of those wide discrepancies in flood modeling data.

“In The Villages area, there are three primary counties in close proximity and all three tell a different story,” Jeremy Porter, director of research and development at First Street Foundation, told Insurance Rate Reporter. “In Lake County, the FEMA flood risk zones find more potential properties at risk of a 1-100 than our models, but in Marion County, we find almost double the amount of properties at risk compared to FEMA.”

The alignment of data is closer for Sumter County, where First Street found more risk, but Porter said it wasn’t a significant discrepancy like what is seen in the other two counties.

FEMA listed 17,000 properties in Lake County, with First Street Foundation identifying 7,000 properties at substantial risk. In Marion County the difference was striking, with 15,000 properties at substantial risk according to FEMA and 31,000 using First Street Foundation’s flood modeling data, Porter said.

Mapping seems to account for the difference, he said.

“The biggest difference I see is that Lake and Sumter County have very good FEMA maps covering rainfall flooding,” Porter told Insurance Rate Reporter. “Marion on the other hand does not cover these same areas very well. In fact, the large difference we see from FEMA in Marion County is the rainfall mapping differences and the fact that the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas don't seem to capture all of the risk in the county.”

Homeowners and property owners should use Flood Factor with other flood information tools, such as FEMA’s resources, to have the best data so they can understand their risks. They can protect themselves and their property now and in the future by making informed decisions with this information, Porter said.

Homeowners can use this information to reduce their risks. The first step is understanding their personal risk.

“Once a homeowner understands their personal risk, they can evaluate possible solutions ranging from very inexpensive options to more expensive options. We do give homeowners potential solutions on FloodFactor but understand that everyone will make the best decision based on their own personal circumstance,” Porter told Insurance Rate Reporter.

Homeowners should be aware and prepared he said and share these concerns with local elected officials.

“Arming local officials with this data can allow for the implementation of projects and protections that are beyond the scope of what a homeowner would be able to afford,” Porter told Insurance Rate Reporter.

First Street Foundation based its data on peer-reviewed research, the company said in its FloodFactor.com launch. A “Flood Factor” or score from 1 to 10 was assigned to every property in the contiguous states. The scores used the length of a 30-year mortgage on which the property’s risk was based. The online visualization tool launched to give everyone the ability to look up a property’s Flood Factor for the future, the present and the past.