Immigration surge impacts US housing markets amid political shifts

Immigration levels in the United States have reached unprecedented heights under the Biden administration, significantly affecting the housing market. Over the past four years, there has been a net increase of more than 8 million immigrants, with a majority settling in southern regions, according to an analysis by The New York Times based on data from U.S. Customs and Border Control. Approximately 5 million of these individuals are unauthorized migrants.

The study also indicates that foreign-born residents now constitute a record high of 15.2% of the U.S. population, reminiscent of European migration waves from the 1850s to early 1900s. Currently, much immigration is occurring across the border separating California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas from Mexico.

This influx has influenced political dynamics in these areas. For instance, Cameron County in Texas shifted its support from Democratic candidates in previous elections to President-elect Donald Trump recently.

A Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies report highlights that foreign-born householders contributed around 25% to household growth between 2019 and 2023. Despite this growth in immigrant populations, rising housing prices are attributed more to an increase in millennial homebuyers rather than immigrants themselves.

Many cities projected for significant growth in 2025 are located in Sun Belt states with substantial foreign-born populations. Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale notes that "a lot of the top markets for growth in 2025 have an outsized share of foreign-born residents." Cities such as Miami and El Paso exhibit higher proportions of foreign-born citizens compared to other major markets.

Miami stands out with 42% of its residents being foreign-born. Similarly, El Paso and McAllen in Texas have significant shares of their populations comprising immigrants. Orlando also ranks high on lists predicting housing market activity due to its sizeable immigrant population.

These cities are attracting considerable international interest as well—El Paso sees six times the international viewership compared to other top markets; McAllen five times; and Miami two-and-a-half times more than average.

Looking ahead at immigration trends, President-elect Trump has prioritized securing borders and announced plans for mass deportations upon taking office. He named Tom Homan as his incoming "border czar," who is known for his critical stance on current immigration policies.

In contrast, cities like Chicago maintain protective ordinances like their Welcoming City Ordinance that prevent officials from questioning residents about their immigration status despite potential federal changes under Trump's administration.