Bryan Ellis Chief Revenue Officer | realtors.com
Moving patterns over the past four years may influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, as reported by Realtor.com's economic research team. The report analyzes home shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024 to determine which states are more popular with red or blue home shoppers.
The findings suggest that Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have attracted more interest from red home shoppers among seven key swing states. Conversely, Wisconsin and Nevada appear more appealing to blue home shoppers. Michigan and Pennsylvania show mixed results without a clear trend.
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale commented on the implications of migration trends: "The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape."
The study utilized online home shopping traffic data alongside county-level results from the 2020 presidential election to assess potential voter affiliations. The researchers assumed that voter preferences were proportional to their county's 2020 voting results.
According to this analysis, between January 2021 and September 2024, blue shoppers accounted for 56.5% of online traffic on Realtor.com, while red shoppers made up 41.7%, with independent shoppers at 1.8%.
Wisconsin has received slightly more out-of-state buyer interest from blue than red shoppers over the past four years. As a result, Wisconsin could potentially lean bluer in the upcoming election.
Overall, migration patterns suggest that 22 states could become more red compared to eight states plus Washington DC trending more blue since the last election. Twelve currently red states might trend even further rightward.
Red-leaning home buyers are interested in southern homes due to affordable housing markets and warmer climates. Florida remains a top destination for both political affiliations among out-of-state buyers.
Alerts Sign-up